Everybody knows the play

AI may feel overhyped—but like Microsoft in 2005, the real story is just beginning. As enterprises undergo structural shifts and AI agents reshape strategy, the biggest winners will be those who stop dabbling and start building for an AI-first future.

Author

Malcolm Frank, CEO
July 28, 2025

Everybody knows the play

A couple decades ago one of my closest friends, managing a hedge fund with the calm intensity of someone betting other people’s money, used to call me for takes on tech. Not stock tips, exactly. More like: “Is this company for real?”

One day he rings me up about Microsoft. Wanted the full rundown: product strategy, enterprise traction, what the CIO crowd thought of it, and of course, valuation. I gave him a bearish take. Told him the story was too obvious, too widely accepted. “Everybody knows the play,” I said. “It’s priced in.”

This was 2005. Microsoft was trading at $25.  On Friday, it closed at $513.  He’s brought it up exactly 173 times since.

It was a clear reminder of how we confuse familiarity with maturity, and define markets by what they’ve been, rather than what they’re becoming.

That brings us to AI.

Yes, it’s everywhere. The headlines are breathless. The LinkedIn posts unbearable. But if you think that means it’s overhyped, think again. AI is probably underhyped, particularly in terms of what it means for the enterprise.

This week alone Intel announced plans to lay off 25,000 employees (bringing AI-driven layoffs in tech to 100,000+ YTD) and Walmart said it’s going all-in on AI agents.  That’s not just strategy. That’s structural. Markets are moving.

The lesson? Don’t mistake noise for saturation. Back in 2005, Microsoft looked fully valued, boring even. But what was coming from that foundation (e.g., cloud, subscription software, enterprise productivity) helped build the next generation of business.

Today, it’s AI.

AI may feel overhyped, but the real story is just beginning. As enterprises undergo structural shifts and AI agents reshape strategy, the biggest winners will be those who stop dabbling and start building for an AI-first future.

BCG: CEOs aren’t thinking big enough with AI

CEOs must look beyond efficiency gains and boldly reimagine workflows, products, and services.

Walmart bets big on AI with “super agent” strategy

The retailer is centralizing AI capabilities to avoid fragmentation, noting that the technology is already being utilized by 900,000 associates.

Tech industry layoffs hit 100,000 for 2025

Intel and Microsoft lead the way as the sector pivots to AI at scale.

The satya of Satya’s layoff memo

Don’t be surprised if normalization of profitable layoffs becomes the next big Silicon Valley export to the broader economy.

Competition shows humans are still better than AI at coding – just

Przemysław Dębiak, who beat OpenAI at world finals, says he may be last human to win due to incredible pace of technological progress

McKinsey bars China business from generative AI consultancy work

McKinsey is telling its China teams to stop consulting on generative AI projects, heeding calls from Washington to steer clear of sensitive tech work.

Forrester: AI agents are ready, people and data are not

The key technological components for truly autonomous AI are being assembled, but user mistrust in AI and missing usable data hamper adoption.

AI is radically changing entry-level jobs, but not eliminating them

Jobs that are repetitive, rule-based, and easily codified are most at risk.

Vibe coding turned this Swedish AI unicorn into the fastest growing software startup ever

Stockholm-based Lovable has hit over $100 million in annualized revenue in just eight months by using AI to enable millions of non-coders to instantly turn their ideas into websites, apps and online side hustles.

Agent of the Week:  OneTrust

Manages data effectively for compliance and trust.

Delta Air Lines is using AI to set the maximum price you’re willing to pay

Relative just died?  Favorite team just made the playoffs?  Delta, in a super-controversial move, can “basically hack your brain” and charge “personalized surge pricing.” 

AI is raising the bar for sales — and Microsoft's layoffs prove the “relationship guy” is out, says a software investor

Salespeople who rely on soft skills may soon be replaced with AI-enabled solution engineers who know the product inside out.

Why AI is causing summer electricity bills to soar

America’s largest power grid is warning that AI-driven electricity use is pushing prices up for everyone.

Case study:  The NFL’s winning AI game plan

CIO Gary Brantley discusses building AI capabilities across every aspect of the league’s operations.

“AI is devaluing the MBA”

Stanford students speak out on curriculum lag & risk to the B-school’s brand.

Job listings looking for people with AI skills are rising fast

Brookings Institution: In the past year alone, AI-themed job postings increased by over 100%.

And one more thing…

If AI attempts to take over world, don’t count on a “kill switch” to save humanity

The “just pull the cord out of the wall” strategy won’t work, as AI is now too widely distributed.

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